Almeria

1 - 3

Real Madrid

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-0 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.