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League One
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League One | Gameweek 11
Feb 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 0
Cheltenham

McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
White (59'), Sibley (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Jackson (26'), Rea (55'), Bonds (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 4-1 Derby
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 4-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 3-1 Cheltenham Town

 Derby will be keen to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing result, and having won eight of their last 10 home league games, we think that they will claim all three points against a Cheltenham side that are bereft of confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 74.89%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 8.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.71%) and 3-0 (10.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
74.89% (0.0020000000000095 0) 16.62%8.49% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 41.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.95% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)45.06% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.6%67.4% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.62%10.38%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.1% (0.00099999999999056 0)33.9%
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)54.05% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.69% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)87.31% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 74.89%
    Cheltenham Town 8.49%
    Draw 16.62%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 14.39%
1-0 @ 12.71%
3-0 @ 10.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.86% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 6.69%
4-0 @ 6.16%
4-1 @ 3.79%
5-0 @ 2.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.06%
5-1 @ 1.72% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.17%
6-0 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 74.89%
1-1 @ 7.82%
0-0 @ 5.61%
2-2 @ 2.72%
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 16.62%
0-1 @ 3.45%
1-2 @ 2.41% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 1.06%
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 8.49%

How you voted: Derby vs Cheltenham

Derby County
85.0%
Draw
7.5%
Cheltenham Town
7.5%
40
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Ferry (57'), Williams (68')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
Forsyth (19'), Collins (84')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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