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League One
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League One | Gameweek 11
Feb 28, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cheltenham Town

Derby
2 - 0
Cheltenham

McGoldrick (43'), Dobbin (67')
White (59'), Sibley (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Jackson (26'), Rea (55'), Bonds (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 4-1 Derby
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

Cheltenham Town

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Portsmouth 4-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, February 25 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 3-1 Cheltenham Town

 Derby will be keen to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing result, and having won eight of their last 10 home league games, we think that they will claim all three points against a Cheltenham side that are bereft of confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 74.89%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 8.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.71%) and 3-0 (10.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.82%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
74.89% (0.0020000000000095 0) 16.62%8.49% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Both teams to score 41.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.95% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)45.06% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.6%67.4% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.62%10.38%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.1% (0.00099999999999056 0)33.9%
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)54.05% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.69% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)87.31% (0.0020000000000095 0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 74.89%
    Cheltenham Town 8.49%
    Draw 16.62%
Derby CountyDrawCheltenham Town
2-0 @ 14.39%
1-0 @ 12.71%
3-0 @ 10.87% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.86% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 6.69%
4-0 @ 6.16%
4-1 @ 3.79%
5-0 @ 2.79% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.06%
5-1 @ 1.72% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.17%
6-0 @ 1.05%
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 74.89%
1-1 @ 7.82%
0-0 @ 5.61%
2-2 @ 2.72%
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 16.62%
0-1 @ 3.45%
1-2 @ 2.41% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 1.06%
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 8.49%

How you voted: Derby vs Cheltenham

Derby County
85.0%
Draw
7.5%
Cheltenham Town
7.5%
40
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2023 3pm
Cheltenham
2-3
Derby
Taylor (2'), May (77')
Ferry (57'), Williams (68')
Hourihane (8'), Bird (11'), Barkhuizen (55')
Forsyth (19'), Collins (84')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Steelers
14-28
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6pm
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9.30pm
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Eagles
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham25156437181951
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2445152444-2017
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814
> League One Full Table


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