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League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 18, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Charlton Athletic

Derby
2 - 0
Charlton

McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
Barkhuizen (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Clare (4'), Hector (9'), Dobson (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Lincoln
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Forest Green 0-1 Charlton
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 3-1 Charlton Athletic

Derby have outscored all but two teams for home goals in League One, and they are backed to return to winning ways at Pride Park this weekend. Despite Charlton's run of wins on the road, that three-game streak is likely to end against a side that have not tasted defeat at their ground since late October. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.57%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 11.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a Charlton Athletic win it was 0-1 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
71.57% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01) 17.28% (0.0040000000000013 0) 11.15% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 49.43% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.17% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)39.83% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.81% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)62.19% (0.012 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.15% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)9.84% (0.004900000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.34% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)32.66% (0.012 0.01)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.82%45.17% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.93% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)81.07%
Score Analysis
    Derby County 71.56%
    Charlton Athletic 11.15%
    Draw 17.28%
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
2-0 @ 11.94%
1-0 @ 10.3%
2-1 @ 9.5% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 9.24% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.34% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 4.25% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-2 @ 2.92% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.48% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.97% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.69% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
6-0 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 71.56%
1-1 @ 8.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.45% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 3.77%
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 17.28%
0-1 @ 3.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-2 @ 1.4% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1%
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 11.15%

How you voted: Derby vs Charlton

Derby County
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Charlton Athletic
16.7%
12
Head to Head
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
Apr 16, 2016 3pm
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Fox (91')
Russell (60')
Butterfield (66'), Keogh (81'), Christie (91')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
9.30pm
Chargers
@
Texans
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham23165241172453
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe25156450272351
3Wrexham25156437181951
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield24145537191847
5Barnsley2512673933642
6Reading2412573933641
7Stockport CountyStockport25108737271038
8Leyton Orient24114932221037
9Mansfield TownMansfield2311483126537
10Bolton WanderersBolton2411493637-137
11Charlton AthleticCharlton239772721634
12Lincoln CityLincoln258892830-232
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham248792424031
14Stevenage238781820-231
15Exeter CityExeter2494112831-331
16Blackpool247983235-330
17Wigan AthleticWigan2376102123-227
18Northampton TownNorthampton2568112439-1526
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2474134146-525
20Bristol Rovers2474132238-1625
21Crawley TownCrawley2355132443-1920
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2445152444-2017
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2445152243-2117
24Burton Albion2428142038-1814


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