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League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 18, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Charlton Athletic

Derby
2 - 0
Charlton

McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
Barkhuizen (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Clare (4'), Hector (9'), Dobson (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Lincoln
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Forest Green 0-1 Charlton
Tuesday, February 14 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Derby County 3-1 Charlton Athletic

Derby have outscored all but two teams for home goals in League One, and they are backed to return to winning ways at Pride Park this weekend. Despite Charlton's run of wins on the road, that three-game streak is likely to end against a side that have not tasted defeat at their ground since late October. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 71.57%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 11.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.19%), while for a Charlton Athletic win it was 0-1 (3.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
71.57% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01) 17.28% (0.0040000000000013 0) 11.15% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Both teams to score 49.43% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.17% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)39.83% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.81% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)62.19% (0.012 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.15% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)9.84% (0.004900000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.34% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)32.66% (0.012 0.01)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.82%45.17% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.93% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)81.07%
Score Analysis
    Derby County 71.56%
    Charlton Athletic 11.15%
    Draw 17.28%
Derby CountyDrawCharlton Athletic
2-0 @ 11.94%
1-0 @ 10.3%
2-1 @ 9.5% (0.0010000000000012 0)
3-0 @ 9.24% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 7.34% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
4-0 @ 5.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 4.25% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-2 @ 2.92% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 2.48% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 1.97% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.69% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
6-0 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 71.56%
1-1 @ 8.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.45% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-2 @ 3.77%
Other @ 0.87%
Total : 17.28%
0-1 @ 3.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-2 @ 3.25% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-2 @ 1.4% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1%
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 11.15%

How you voted: Derby vs Charlton

Derby County
83.3%
Draw
0.0%
Charlton Athletic
16.7%
12
Head to Head
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
Apr 16, 2016 3pm
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Fox (91')
Russell (60')
Butterfield (66'), Keogh (81'), Christie (91')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120


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