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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Doncaster Rovers win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Doncaster Rovers win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Doncaster Rovers would win this match.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
29.96% ( 0.32) | 24.19% ( 0.29) | 45.84% ( -0.61) |
Both teams to score 58.39% ( -0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.11% ( -1.14) | 43.89% ( 1.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.72% ( -1.13) | 66.28% ( 1.13) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.36% ( -0.36) | 27.64% ( 0.36) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.81% ( -0.46) | 63.18% ( 0.46) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.69% ( -0.7) | 19.3% ( 0.71) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.94% ( -1.17) | 51.06% ( 1.17) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
2-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 29.96% | 1-1 @ 11.28% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.26) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.24) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 5.09% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.18% Total : 45.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 46 |
3 | Port Vale | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 44 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
5 | Notts County | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 43 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 43 |
7 | Salford City | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 41 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 35 |
11 | Bromley | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 34 |
12 | MK Dons | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 34 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 31 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 30 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 25 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 30 |
16 | Gillingham | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 30 |
17 | BarrowBarrow | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 28 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 28 |
20 | Newport CountyNewport | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 26 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 25 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 25 |
23 | Morecambe | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 20 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 18 |
> League Two Full Table |