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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 56.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 19.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
56.39% ( 0.05) | 24.24% ( -0.02) | 19.36% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 47.02% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.53% ( 0.02) | 53.47% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.01% ( 0.01) | 74.99% ( -0.02) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.17% ( 0.02) | 18.83% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.73% ( 0.04) | 50.27% ( -0.05) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.93% ( -0.03) | 42.07% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.51% ( -0.03) | 78.49% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
1-0 @ 13.22% 2-0 @ 11.04% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 56.39% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 24.24% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 19.36% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Walsall | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 30 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 29 |
4 | Notts County | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
6 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Chesterfield | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 25 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Gillingham | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 23 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 21 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
19 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 17 |
20 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
21 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 13 |
23 | Morecambe | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
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