Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 58.03%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 21.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.07%) and 1-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (5.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.