We said: Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Red Star Belgrade
With so much at stake, it could be a cagey first leg between two teams accustomed to blowing opponents away in domestic football.
Red Star score so frequently, though, they are likely to find the net at some stage, with an away draw making them slight favourites to progress next week.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bodo/Glimt win with a probability of 61.37%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 19.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bodo/Glimt win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.1%) and 3-1 (7.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.56%), while for a Red Star Belgrade win it was 1-2 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Bodo/Glimt in this match.