Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 45.36%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 32.82% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.58%) and 0-1 (5.51%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.