Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 70.91%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 12.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 3-0 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.63%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (3.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.