Denmark have won 11 of their last 12 home matches, drawing the other against Switzerland in March, so they will be hugely confident of extending that run after a win over the same opponents on Thursday.
Serbia kept Spain at bay on the same night, but they need to show more in attack, and with no Mitrovic or Vlahovic they could struggle in that regard, and there is only so far a solely strong rearguard can get you.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Denmark win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Denmark win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Denmark would win this match.
-0.01) 
0) 
