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World Cup
Equatorial Guinea national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage
Jun 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Nuevo Estadio de Malabo
Malawi national football team

Eq Guinea
1 - 0
Malawi

Salvador (82')
Siafa (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Banega Aaron (11'), Mwaungulu (26'), Chokooka (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Equatorial Guinea and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Tunisia 1-0 Eq Guinea
Wednesday, June 5 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Malawi

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Malawi 3-1 Sao Tome
Thursday, June 6 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

We said: Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Malawi

 While Malawi will be looking to pick up where they left off against Sao Tome, they are in for a tough 90 minutes against Equatorial Guinea who are known to be rock-solid on home soil. That said, we predict an action-packed affair at the Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, with the hosts claiming all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Equatorial Guinea.

Result
Equatorial GuineaDrawMalawi
37.48% (-0.358 -0.36) 29.09% (-0.204 -0.2) 33.43% (0.56 0.56)
Both teams to score 44.47% (0.639 0.64)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.75% (0.736 0.74)62.25% (-0.738 -0.74)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.08% (0.538 0.54)81.92% (-0.539 -0.54)
Equatorial Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.04% (0.155 0.16)31.96% (-0.158 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.58% (0.174 0.17)68.42% (-0.17699999999999 -0.18)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.36% (0.79000000000001 0.79)34.64% (-0.792 -0.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.63% (0.829 0.83)71.37% (-0.831 -0.83)
Score Analysis
    Equatorial Guinea 37.47%
    Malawi 33.42%
    Draw 29.08%
Equatorial GuineaDrawMalawi
1-0 @ 12.62% (-0.3 -0.3)
2-1 @ 7.64% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.2% (-0.138 -0.14)
3-1 @ 2.9% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.74% (-0.041 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.54% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 37.47%
1-1 @ 13.38% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 11.07% (-0.31 -0.31)
2-2 @ 4.05% (0.096 0.1)
Other @ 0.59%
Total : 29.08%
0-1 @ 11.73% (-0.07 -0.07)
1-2 @ 7.1% (0.14 0.14)
0-2 @ 6.22% (0.096 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.51% (0.102 0.1)
0-3 @ 2.2% (0.08 0.08)
2-3 @ 1.43% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 33.42%

How you voted: Eq Guinea vs Malawi

Equatorial Guinea
41.9%
Draw
25.8%
Malawi
32.3%
31
rhs 2.0
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