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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 51.76%. A win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 26.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.65%) and 0-1 (6.6%). The likeliest FC Utrecht win was 2-1 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
26.69% ( -1.61) | 21.55% ( -0.49) | 51.76% ( 2.1) |
Both teams to score 65.37% ( 0.39) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.39% ( 1.1) | 33.6% ( -1.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.58% ( 1.25) | 55.41% ( -1.25) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.42% ( -0.48) | 24.58% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.93% ( -0.68) | 59.07% ( 0.68) |
PSV Eindhoven Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.68% ( 1.06) | 13.32% ( -1.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.83% ( 2.11) | 40.16% ( -2.11) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
2-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.31) 1-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.34) 2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.29) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.16) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.62% Total : 26.69% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.41% Total : 21.55% | 1-2 @ 9.34% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.14) 0-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 6.27% ( 0.28) 0-3 @ 4.47% ( 0.26) 2-3 @ 4.4% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 3.16% ( 0.26) 0-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.21) 2-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.15) 1-5 @ 1.28% ( 0.15) 3-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.06) 0-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.17% Total : 51.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 16 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 56 | 13 | 43 | 42 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 36 |
3 | Feyenoord | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 35 |
4 | Ajax | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
5 | FC Twente | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 26 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 22 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 22 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
10 | Heerenveen | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 21 |
11 | Willem II | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 6 |
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