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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 55.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Almere City had a probability of 21.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for an Almere City win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
Result | ||
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Almere City |
55.5% ( -1.98) | 22.85% ( 0.72) | 21.65% ( 1.26) |
Both teams to score 54.7% ( -0.5) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.02% ( -1.57) | 44.98% ( 1.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.67% ( -1.52) | 67.33% ( 1.53) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.94% ( -1.2) | 16.06% ( 1.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.57% ( -2.25) | 45.43% ( 2.25) |
Almere City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.16% ( 0.34) | 34.84% ( -0.34) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.43% ( 0.36) | 71.57% ( -0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Almere City |
1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.29) 3-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.33) 3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.26) 4-0 @ 2.61% ( -0.27) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.14) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.39% Total : 55.5% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( 0.37) 0-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.37) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.84% | 0-1 @ 5.9% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 2% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.03% Total : 21.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |