Italy

4 - 1

Israel

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Israel had a probability of 16.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.