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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 78.42%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 6.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.79%) and 3-0 (11.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.91%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Oxford United |
78.42% ( 0.17) | 14.63% ( -0.11) | 6.95% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 40.47% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.39% ( 0.24) | 41.6% ( -0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.99% ( 0.24) | 64.01% ( -0.24) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.34% ( 0.1) | 8.66% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.16% ( 0.23) | 29.84% ( -0.24) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
44.3% ( -0.02) | 55.7% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.71% ( -0.01) | 88.29% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Oxford United |
2-0 @ 14.43% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.79% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.4% Total : 78.41% | 1-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.43% Total : 14.63% | 0-1 @ 2.82% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.11% Total : 6.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 39 |
8 | Watford | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 38 |
9 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 32 |
14 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 29 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 25 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 41 | -15 | 24 |
22 | Portsmouth | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 21 |
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