Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 76.73%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 9.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 1-2 (2.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.