Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.69% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.