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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Portsmouth |
49.48% ( 0.81) | 24.62% ( -0.06) | 25.9% ( -0.76) |
Both teams to score 53.89% ( -0.47) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.59% ( -0.3) | 48.4% ( 0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.46% ( -0.27) | 70.54% ( 0.27) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.4% ( 0.21) | 19.59% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.46% ( 0.35) | 51.53% ( -0.36) |
Portsmouth Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.02% ( -0.77) | 32.98% ( 0.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.44% ( -0.85) | 69.56% ( 0.85) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Portsmouth |
1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 2.96% Total : 49.47% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.61% | 0-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.46% Total : 25.9% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 43 | 15 | 28 | 48 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 48 |
3 | Burnley | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 47 |
4 | Sunderland | 23 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 44 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 38 |
6 | Watford | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 37 |
7 | Middlesbrough | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 36 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 35 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 33 |
10 | Swansea CitySwansea | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 30 |
11 | Bristol City | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 30 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 29 |
13 | Millwall | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 28 |
14 | Derby CountyDerby | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 27 |
15 | Coventry CityCoventry | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 27 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
17 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 25 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 22 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Portsmouth | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 37 | -11 | 20 |
22 | Hull City | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 19 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 18 |
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