We said: Tanzania 1-0 Ethiopia
While Ethiopia have enjoyed the better of this fixture, Tanzania head into the game off the back of a solid display against Zambia and will be backing themselves on their home soil.
Ethiopia have failed to taste victory in 11 straight competitive games and we see this run extending, with the Taifa Stars claiming all three points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 35.82%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.07%) and 2-1 (6.98%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 0-1 (13.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.