Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.9%) and 2-0 (5.27%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.