Liga MX | 1st Leg
Oct 14, 2022 at 1.06am UK
Estadio Nuevo Corona
Toluca4 - 3Santos Laguna
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Santos Laguna.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Toluca 3-0 Juarez
Sunday, October 9 at 6pm in Liga MX
Sunday, October 9 at 6pm in Liga MX
Last Game: Santos Laguna 3-0 Mazatlan
Monday, October 3 at 12.05am in Liga MX
Monday, October 3 at 12.05am in Liga MX
Goals
for
for
38
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Santos Laguna |
44.19% ( 0.4) | 23.26% ( -0.02) | 32.54% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 63.07% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.69% ( -0.04) | 38.31% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.41% ( -0.05) | 60.59% ( 0.04) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.25% ( 0.14) | 17.75% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.56% ( 0.25) | 48.43% ( -0.26) |
| Santos Laguna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.68% ( -0.24) | 23.31% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.73% ( -0.35) | 57.26% ( 0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
Toluca 44.19%
Santos Laguna 32.54%
Draw 23.26%
| Toluca | Draw | Santos Laguna |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.24% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.9% Total : 44.19% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.06% Total : 32.54% |
Head to Head
Jul 23, 2022 11pm
Toluca
2-1
Santos Laguna
Fernandez (11' pen.), Sierra (25')
Ruiz (45'), Angulo (86')
Ruiz (45'), Angulo (86')
Rodriguez (75')
Rodriguez (31'), Doria (88'), (90+7')
Rodriguez (31'), Doria (88'), (90+7')
Jan 16, 2022 6pm
Toluca
3-1
Santos Laguna
Alvarez (41'), Fernandez (56'), Rigonato Rodrigues (80')
Rodriguez (21'), Ortega (37'), Garcia (76'), Fernandez (79')
Rodriguez (21'), Ortega (37'), Garcia (76'), Fernandez (79')
Sep 20, 2020 6pm
Toluca
1-2
Santos Laguna
Sandoval (40'), Rivero (52')
Form Guide
