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Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 36
May 20, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Marseille

Lille
2 - 1
Marseille

David (50' pen.), Bamba (72')
Andre (57'), Bamba (73'), Bayo (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Clauss (29')
Balerdi (37'), Rongier (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Monaco 0-0 Lille
Sunday, May 14 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Angers
Sunday, May 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 2-2 Marseille

While Lille's last home defeat came all the way back in August, Marseille have remained a serious threat on the road throughout the campaign, meaning that Saturday's showdown is destined to be a close-fought battle. Accordingly, we can see Lille and Marseille serving up an entertaining encounter at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, with the two sides sharing the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 26.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawMarseille
48.12% (0.265 0.27) 25.64% (-0.093 -0.09) 26.23% (-0.166 -0.17)
Both teams to score 50.99% (0.151 0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.64% (0.262 0.26)52.36% (-0.256 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.96% (0.226 0.23)74.04% (-0.22 -0.22)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.23% (0.229 0.23)21.76% (-0.223 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.05% (0.343 0.34)54.95% (-0.338 -0.34)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.17% (0.0049999999999955 0)34.83% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.44% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)71.56%
Score Analysis
    Lille 48.12%
    Marseille 26.23%
    Draw 25.64%
LilleDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 11.55% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-1 @ 9.3% (0.029 0.03)
2-0 @ 8.81% (0.029 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.73% (0.047 0.05)
3-0 @ 4.48% (0.044 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.49% (0.025 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.8% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.71% (0.029 0.03)
4-2 @ 0.95% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 2.3%
Total : 48.12%
1-1 @ 12.19% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 7.58% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-2 @ 4.9% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 25.64%
0-1 @ 8% (-0.082 -0.08)
1-2 @ 6.43% (-0.022 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.22% (-0.043 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.26% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.72% (0.006 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.48% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 26.23%

How you voted: Lille vs Marseille

Lille
34.6%
Draw
29.6%
Marseille
35.8%
81
Head to Head
Sep 10, 2022 8pm
gameweek 7
Marseille
2-1
Lille
Sanchez (26'), Gigot (61')
Balerdi (14')
Ismaily (12')
Jan 16, 2022 7.45pm
gameweek 21
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Under (75')
Guendouzi (4')
Botman (15')
Andre (30'), Grbic (55'), Celik (55'), Lihadji (86')
Andre (32')
Oct 3, 2021 4pm
gameweek 9
Lille
2-0
Marseille
David (28', 90+4')
Mandava (11'), Yilmaz (66')

Under (24'), Balerdi (37')
Under (77')
Mar 3, 2021 8pm
gameweek 28
Lille
2-0
Marseille
David (90', 90+2')
Sep 20, 2020 8pm
gameweek 4
Marseille
1-1
Lille
Germain (85')
Nagatomo (21'), Thauvin (58'), Gonzalez (65')
Araujo (47')
Andre (50'), Bradaric (58'), Sanches (80')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille17113339201936
3MonacoMonaco1794428181031
4Nice1786335231230
5Lille1778226161029
6Lyon178452922728
7Lens166641915424
8Toulouse167361817124
9Auxerre176472426-222
10Brest177192630-422
11StrasbourgStrasbourg165562828020
12Reims175572325-220
13Rennes1752102325-217
14NantesNantes173772027-716
15Angers164481626-1016
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1651101535-2016
17Le HavreLe Havre1640121234-2212
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1623111539-249


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