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Ligue 1
Montpellier
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Oct 22, 2022 at 4pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
Lyon

Montpellier
1 - 2
Lyon

Wahi (70')
Savanier (59'), Wahi (74')
Mavididi (76')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Aouar (33'), Lacazette (90')
Aouar (7'), Mendes (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Last Game: Lens 1-0 Montpellier
Saturday, October 15 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Lyon

All competitions
Last Game: Rennes 3-2 Lyon
Sunday, October 16 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Montpellier HSC 1-2 Lyon

 There were plenty of things to like about Lyon's first performance under Blanc, and facing a Montpellier side who are also in disarray could be just the ticket for Les Gones to end their winless habit. It is always difficult to predict the outcome of matches where two newly-hired managers pit their wits against one another, but the firepower at Blanc's disposal could see him come out on top over Montpellier's Pitau, whose own difference makers in the final third can spark an intriguing contest. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 54.09%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 24.3% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.5%) and 0-1 (7.49%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lyon in this match.

Result
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
24.3% (-0.135 -0.14) 21.61% (-0.247 -0.25) 54.09% (0.381 0.38)
Both teams to score 62.52% (0.737 0.74)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.76% (1.038 1.04)36.24% (-1.039 -1.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.64% (1.129 1.13)58.35% (-1.13 -1.13)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.28% (0.459 0.46)27.72% (-0.459 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.72% (0.585 0.59)63.28% (-0.587 -0.59)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.5% (0.473 0.47)13.5% (-0.474 -0.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.46% (0.94 0.94)40.54% (-0.941 -0.94)
Score Analysis
    Montpellier HSC 24.3%
    Lyon 54.09%
    Draw 21.61%
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
2-1 @ 6.17% (-0.048 -0.05)
1-0 @ 4.8% (-0.186 -0.19)
2-0 @ 3.08% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-2 @ 2.64% (0.059 0.06)
3-1 @ 2.64% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.32% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 24.3%
1-1 @ 9.62% (-0.201 -0.2)
2-2 @ 6.18% (0.059 0.06)
0-0 @ 3.74% (-0.196 -0.2)
3-3 @ 1.76% (0.069 0.07)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 21.61%
1-2 @ 9.63% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 7.5% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-1 @ 7.49% (-0.256 -0.26)
1-3 @ 6.43% (0.09 0.09)
0-3 @ 5.01% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
2-3 @ 4.12% (0.11 0.11)
1-4 @ 3.22% (0.1 0.1)
0-4 @ 2.51% (0.046 0.05)
2-4 @ 2.06% (0.089 0.09)
1-5 @ 1.29% (0.061 0.06)
0-5 @ 1% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 3.84%
Total : 54.09%

How you voted: Montpellier vs Lyon

Montpellier HSC
16.3%
Draw
16.3%
Lyon
67.3%
49
Head to Head
Apr 23, 2022 4pm
Lyon
5-2
Montpellier
Dembele (26'), Mendes (43'), Aouar (63', 90+1'), Toko Ekambi (68')
Boateng (75'), Gusto (89')
Wahi (45+1'), Savanier (45+3' pen.)
Oyongo (28'), Cozza (42')
Nov 28, 2021 4pm
Montpellier
0-1
Lyon

Ferri (68')
Paqueta (17')
Slimani (29'), Caqueret (40'), Boateng (45'), Palmieri (67')
Feb 13, 2021 8pm
Lyon
1-2
Montpellier
Paqueta (45+1')
Savanier (20'), Wahi (65')
Ristic (49')
Sep 15, 2020 8pm
Montpellier
2-1
Lyon
Savanier (38' pen., 59')
Delort (7'), Ferri (62'), Hilton (71')
Hilton (81')
Depay (82' pen.)
Guimaraes (36'), Toko Ekambi (45+2')
Aouar (44')
May 9, 2020 7pm
Lyon
P-P
Montpellier
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG19145049173247
2Marseille19114440231737
3MonacoMonaco19104532221034
4Nice1996438251333
5Lille1988329191032
6Lyon198653023730
7Lens198652318530
8Brest199192931-228
9StrasbourgStrasbourg197663331227
10Toulouse197482021-125
11Auxerre196582529-423
12Reims195772527-222
13Angers196492128-722
14NantesNantes193972229-718
15Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1953111839-2118
16Rennes1952122630-417
17Montpellier HSCMontpellier1943122044-2415
18Le HavreLe Havre1941141438-2413
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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