Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Clermont had a probability of 32.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Clermont win was 0-1 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.