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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland national football team
Nations League | League C
Oct 15, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Windsor Park
Bulgaria national football team

N. Ireland
5 - 0
Bulgaria

Price (15', 29', 81'), Mitov (32' og.), Magennis (89')
Price (25'), Toal (41')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Despodov (30'), Krastev (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Belarus 0-0 N. Ireland
Saturday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Bulgaria

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Nations League

We said: Northern Ireland 1-1 Bulgaria

 In a tightly contested group, with few goals and few wins, it could be another share of the spoils on Tuesday evening, as Bulgaria are particularly hard to beat. Northern Ireland are certainly showing signs of improvement, but without a clinical finisher they may have to settle for a home draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 52.01%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 19.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.54%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.6%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northern Ireland would win this match.

Result
Northern IrelandDrawBulgaria
52.01% (0.43 0.43) 28.17% (-0.148 -0.15) 19.82% (-0.281 -0.28)
Both teams to score 37.97% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
34.24% (0.188 0.19)65.75% (-0.18599999999999 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
15.58% (0.13 0.13)84.41% (-0.128 -0.13)
Northern Ireland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.16% (0.291 0.29)25.84% (-0.289 -0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.19% (0.393 0.39)60.8% (-0.392 -0.39)
Bulgaria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.2% (-0.20500000000001 -0.21)48.8% (0.206 0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.19% (-0.149 -0.15)83.81% (0.152 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Northern Ireland 52.01%
    Bulgaria 19.82%
    Draw 28.15%
Northern IrelandDrawBulgaria
1-0 @ 17.06% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 11.54% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 8.28% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.21% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
3-1 @ 3.74% (0.045 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.76% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.34% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.26% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 52.01%
0-0 @ 12.6% (-0.09 -0.09)
1-1 @ 12.24% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-2 @ 2.97% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 28.15%
0-1 @ 9.05% (-0.116 -0.12)
1-2 @ 4.39% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-2 @ 3.25% (-0.061 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1.05% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 19.82%

How you voted: N. Ireland vs Bulgaria

Northern Ireland
49.2%
Draw
30.0%
Bulgaria
20.8%
130
Head to Head
Sep 8, 2024 5pm
League C
Bulgaria
1-0
N. Ireland
Despodov (40')
Ahmedov (78'), Nurnberger (90+1'), Kolev (90+3')

Charles (28'), McNair (29'), Bradley (59'), Hume (81')
> Preview
Oct 12, 2021 7.45pm
Group Stage
Bulgaria
2-1
N. Ireland
Nedelev (53', 63')
Malinov (88')
Washington (35')
Ballard (69'), Dallas (88'), Baraclough (90+3')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2021 7.45pm
Group Stage
N. Ireland
0-0
Bulgaria
McNair (33'), Saville (70'), Lafferty (90+2')
Hristov (24'), Antov (45+2'), Iliev (86')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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