New York City FC will put its MLS Cup title on the line on Monday when they host Inter Miami at Citi Field in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Pigeons come into this encounter having won four consecutive matches in all competitions, while the Herons captured four of their last five regular season affairs, finishing sixth in the Eastern Conference.
Match preview
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Good things tend to come in pairs, and that has been the case for New York, who have scored two goals in each of their last four matches, all of which were victories.
Capturing the Campeones Cup in mid-September seemed to breathe new life into Nick Cushing's men, who were winless in five consecutive contests before that triumph, scoring a goal or fewer in every match during that slide.
While their tactics from Cushing to former manager Ronny Deila did not change, this team seemed to go through a significant adjustment period when the former Man City Women's coach took over, as NYCFC went winless in his first five games at the helm.
The Boys in Blue won 10 home fixtures this year, second only to the Philadelphia Union in the Eastern Conference with two of those victories taking place in Queens, where Monday's match will be played.
NYCFC are unbeaten at Citi Field this year, conceding a goal or fewer in three of those four encounters, though they did lose their last playoff game in Queens, 2-1 versus Toronto in the 2019 Eastern Conference semi-finals.
That was the last time that the Pigeons lost their opening playoff fixture, while it was also the last time they were defeated in normal time of a postseason encounter, with NYCFC having won four straight elimination games.
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A campaign that looked to be going nowhere fast in Miami turned dramatically for the Herons once September rolled around.
They won four of their final six encounters in 2022, while many of their matches came down to the wire, with the Herons winning seven games this year thanks to a goal with 10 minutes or fewer remaining.
Some in-season acquisitions, veteran leadership and a bold move by manager Phil Neville seemed to transform this team's fortunes and put them back in the mix for a postseason berth weeks ago.
While they were able to get their act together before the season was lost, Miami looked very susceptible in transition and, when pressed along the back end, conceding 56 goals in 34 games, the third-highest total in the Eastern Conference.
Miami have only played in one previous playoff encounter, falling 3-0 at Nashville SC in the play-in round in their inaugural MLS season in 2020.
The Herons will enter this fixture on a two-game road winning streak though none of their four away victories this year came against playoff teams.
Team News
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Alexander Callens was recognized for his solid season at the back for NYCFC, as he is on the shortlist for MLS Defender of the Year, Sean Johnson finished second in the league for clean sheets with 14, and last weekend Keaton Parks started for the first time since the end of May.
Parks was the only newcomer to the Pigeons' starting 11 on Decision Day in their 2-1 victory over Atlanta United, replacing Santiago Rodriguez in the midfield.
Alfredo Morales is out with a calf strain, while Tayvon Gray and Talles Magno both suffered knocks in their last regular season affair, but Cushing has not ruled either of them out of this contest.
Gonzalo Higuain could be playing in his final match as a professional footballer on Monday, and he has been on a tear since being benched by Neville earlier in the campaign, scoring seven goals in the Herons' last six games and earning a nomination for the Comeback Player of the Year.
Drake Callender was named as a finalist for the MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Award, while Alejandro Pozuelo had a brace the last time NYCFC hosted a playoff game at Citi Field, helping his former side Toronto FC defeat them 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals.
Pozuelo might not be available, though, because of a sore groin, Corentin Jean and Ian Fray are nursing knee problems, while Leonardo Campana and Robbie Robinson are dealing with hamstring injuries.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Callens, Chanot, Martins, Gray; Acevedo, Parks; Rodriguez, Moralez, Pereira; Magno
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Callender; Yedlin, Lowe, Mabika, McVey; Duke, Mota, Gregore; Taylor; Lassiter, Higuain
We say: New York City FC 1-0 Inter Miami
If Pozuelo is unavailable, that is a massive break for the home side, as he has been instrumental to the Herons' success in possession, creating several high-quality scoring opportunities since his arrival in a mid-season trade with TFC.
Whether he plays, we are still giving NYCFC the edge because they seem to have cleaned up their defensive issues, and their experience from last year's run to the MLS Cup should help them settle into this match a lot quicker than Miami.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
