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MLS header WWW

Major League Soccer
New York City
Major League Soccer
Sep 17, 2022 at 6pm UK
Yankee Stadium
New York Red Bulls

NY City
2 - 0
NY Red Bulls

Callens (1'), Rodriguez (23')
Acevedo (46'), Moralez (63'), Rodriguez (89')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Morgan (25'), Duncan (28'), Casseres Jr (86'), Edelman (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

Last Six:
Last Game: Charlotte FC 1-0 NY City
Saturday, September 10 at 6pm in Major League Soccer

New York Red Bulls

Last Six:
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 2-1 New England
Saturday, September 10 at 11pm in Major League Soccer

We said: New York City FC 1-0 New York Red Bulls

 Momentum may not be on the side of the reigning MLS champs right now in the domestic campaign, but it looked like they gained a lot of confidence from their Campeones Cup triumph in midweek, and we believe they will be able to carry that form into this weekend. After clinching a playoff berth, we expect the Red Bulls might be a little complacent in this one, knowing that they have some breathing room in the Eastern Conference table. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
53.35% (-3.781 -3.78) 23.71% (1.084 1.08) 22.94% (2.699 2.7)
Both teams to score 53.61% (0.313 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.75% (-1.437 -1.44)47.25% (1.436 1.44)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.52% (-1.349 -1.35)69.48% (1.35 1.35)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.35% (-1.851 -1.85)17.65% (1.852 1.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.74% (-3.314 -3.31)48.26% (3.315 3.32)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.1% (1.803 1.8)34.9% (-1.801 -1.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.36% (1.85 1.85)71.64% (-1.851 -1.85)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 53.35%
    New York Red Bulls 22.94%
    Draw 23.7%
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
1-0 @ 10.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.75% (-0.141 -0.14)
2-0 @ 9.27% (-0.606 -0.61)
3-1 @ 5.64% (-0.447 -0.45)
3-0 @ 5.36% (-0.715 -0.72)
3-2 @ 2.97% (-0.083 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.45% (-0.363 -0.36)
4-0 @ 2.32% (-0.479 -0.48)
4-2 @ 1.29% (-0.121 -0.12)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 53.35%
1-1 @ 11.24% (0.52 0.52)
0-0 @ 6.16% (0.362 0.36)
2-2 @ 5.13% (0.175 0.18)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.7%
0-1 @ 6.48% (0.673 0.67)
1-2 @ 5.92% (0.545 0.55)
0-2 @ 3.41% (0.5 0.5)
1-3 @ 2.08% (0.282 0.28)
2-3 @ 1.8% (0.144 0.14)
0-3 @ 1.2% (0.224 0.22)
Other @ 2.05%
Total : 22.94%

How you voted: NY City vs NY Red Bulls

New York City FC
41.7%
Draw
16.7%
New York Red Bulls
41.7%
12
Head to Head
Jul 17, 2022 10pm
NY Red Bulls
0-1
NY City

Casseres Jr (84'), Amaya (86'), Nealis (90+4')
Castellanos (69')
Morales (41'), Acevedo (71'), Castellanos (88')
Oct 17, 2021 6pm
NY Red Bulls
1-0
NY City
Casseres Jr (3')
Nealis (16'), Davis (21')

Chanot (34'), Amundsen (82')
Sep 26, 2021 1am
NY City
0-1
NY Red Bulls

Sands (62'), Castellanos (75')
Fernandez (43')
Tolkin (13'), Duncan (85')
Sep 23, 2021 1am
NY Red Bulls
1-1
NY City
Klimala (90+12' pen., 90+12' pen.)
Davis (45'), Reyes (61'), Klimala (80'), Duncan (82'), Clark (84')
Castellanos (31')
Callens (21'), Tinnerholm (44'), Chanot (84')
Parks (73'), Chanot (90+10')
Nov 2, 2020 12am
NY City
5-2
NY Red Bulls
Castellanos (12', 76', 84' pen.), Mackay-Steven (42'), Ring (51')
Parks (68'), Medina (70')
White (18'), Casseres Jr (38')
Duncan (41')
rhs 2.0
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