A tantalising winner-takes-all showdown in Champions League Group H is on the menu at the Estadio do Dragao on Wednesday evening, as second-placed Porto host third-placed Shakhtar Donetsk for a spot in the last 16.
Both sides are neck-and-neck in the rankings with nine points to their name, although the hosts' matchday one success over their Ukrainian foes currently has them in the driving seat for qualification.
Match preview
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Only one of Porto's last six Champions League adventures has seen Sergio Conceicao's men fall at the opening group-stage hurdle, but the to-do list for Wednesday evening is simple, as Porto simply need to avoid defeat to punch their ticket to the next stage at the expense of Shakhtar's Champions League dreams.
The Portuguese giants were on track to spoil Barcelona's qualification party two weeks ago, as Brazilian attacker Pepe broke the deadlock on the half-hour mark at Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, only for Joao Cancelo and Joao Felix to turn the tie on its head and inflict a 2-1 loss on Porto.
Nevertheless, thanks to a prior 3-1 beating of Shakhtar in September, Porto currently have the upper hand over their fellow last-16 chasers, and a draw on home territory this week will be enough for Conceicao's side to reach the knockout rounds as runners-up to Barcelona.
The 2021-22 tournament marks the only time in the last six seasons that Porto have failed to advance to the last 16, and that campaign coincidentally marks the only occasion since 2016 where the Dragons have not won their final group game, but recent home exploits offers hope that history will not repeat itself.
Indeed, Conceicao's team made it three wins on the trot at Estadio do Dragao by overcoming Casa Pia 3-1 in Primeira Liga action at the weekend, where 40-year-old Pepe was among the scorers after previously becoming the oldest player to net a Champions League goal in November's success over Royal Antwerp.
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There are no complicated qualification permutations for Shakhtar supporters to rack their brains about either, but a point will not suffice for the Ukrainian side if they are to extend their top-tier adventure; only a win will do for Marino Pusic's men on Iberian soil.
Shakhtar ensured that the fight for qualification would go right down to the wire during their battle with basement boys Royal Antwerp last time out, sinking the Belgian minnows 1-0 courtesy of a first-half Mykola Matvienko header, and first place is not out of the visitors' reach either.
While victory would guarantee a top-two finish first and foremost, Shakhtar are three points adrift of Barcelona and are level on all head-to-head categories with the Blaugrana, who are at risk of losing their grip on first place if they suffer a shock defeat away to Antwerp this week.
Even if Shakhtar were to prevail in Porto while Barcelona lost to Antwerp, Pusic's team would still require a mammoth seven-goal swing in their favour to qualify as group winners, but they have rediscovered their defensive resolve at the right time.
The visitors marched to their third successive win with a third consecutive clean sheet on Friday, cruising to a 2-0 beating of Veres Rivne, but a particular set of demons must be banished for Shakhtar to reach the last 16, as they have never beaten Porto in seven previous attempts.
Team News
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Porto's beating of Casa Pia at the weekend came at a minor cost, as midfielder Ivan Jaime was withdrawn with an apparent leg injury just before the hour mark, but the 23-year-old would have been unlikely to begin a game of this magnitude.
Joining Jaime in the Porto treatment room are Gabriel Veron (Achilles), Ivan Marcano (ACL), Wendell (muscle) and Samuel Portugal (groin), and the former's issue will likely open the door for tricky winger Galeno to come back into the XI.
Defensive duo David Carmo - back from a European ban - and Zaidu Sanusi are also primed to form part of Diogo Costa's shield, and Conceicao is also said to be hopeful of welcoming Joao Mario back from a thigh issue in time for the right-back to reprise his role too.
As far as Shakhtar are concerned, Pusic will be expected to make do without attacking duo Lassina Traore and Ivan Petryak, who are down with tendon and ankle issues respectively, while right-back Yukhym Konoplya is also in the treatment room with an unspecified concern.
With Traore likely to remain sidelined until the end of December at the earliest, Danylo Sikan will shoulder the striker's burden, but the Ukraine international must tread carefully, as he is only one yellow card away from incurring a one-game suspension in Europe.
Playing just off of the number nine, 21-year-old Georgiy Sudakov has more than one motivation to perform on Wednesday, as the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea are believed to be keeping a watchful eye on his displays.
Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Mario, Pepe, Cardoso, Sanusi; Pepe, Varela, Eustaquio, Galeno; Taremi, Evanilson
Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Riznyk; Gocholeishvili, Bondar, Matvienko, Azarovi; Stepanenko, Bondarenko; Zubkov, Sudakov, Newerton; Sikan
We say: Porto 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
For all of Shakhtar's recent defensive mastery, the Ukrainian side may abandon their principles on Wednesday given their overriding need for a first-ever win over Porto, who have always had the visitors' number down the years.
It is not impossible to envisage Costa's goal being breached, but as Shakhtar commit bodies forward, Porto's attacking contingent can launch a couple of devastating counter-attacks to advance to the last 16 and force the visitors to accept a Europa League demotion.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
