Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round
Nov 24, 2023 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Porto4 - 0Montalegre
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Saturday, November 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Saturday, November 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Montalegre 2-1 Pevidem
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal
We said: Porto 3-0 Montalegre
Even with many personnel changes, there is not much doubt that Porto will progress with ease, but a narrow scoreline could see Conceicao come in for more criticism. Montalegre are unbeaten in their last six and have won their last two games, but they have next-to-no chance of pulling off one of the all-time shocks in Portuguese football here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 90.78%. A draw had a probability of 6.5% and a win for Montalegre had a probability of 2.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.72%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Montalegre win it was 1-2 (0.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Montalegre |
90.78% ( 0.01) | 6.55% ( -0.01) | 2.67% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.21% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.72% ( -0.01) | 20.28% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.51% ( -0.02) | 38.49% ( 0.02) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 97.46% ( -0) | 2.54% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 88.12% ( -0) | 11.88% ( -0) |
| Montalegre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.34% ( -0.05) | 55.66% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 11.73% ( -0.03) | 88.27% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
Porto 90.77%
Montalegre 2.67%
Draw 6.55%
| Porto | Draw | Montalegre |
| 3-0 @ 11.67% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 10.72% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.84% ( -0)4-1 @ 6.28% ( -0)2-1 @ 5.59% ( -0)1-0 @ 5.2% ( 0)6-0 @ 4.82% ( 0)5-1 @ 4.61% ( -0)6-1 @ 2.82% ( -0)7-0 @ 2.53% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0)7-1 @ 1.48% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.35% ( -0)8-0 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 4.44% Total : 90.77% | 1-1 @ 3.05% ( -0) 2-2 @ 1.64% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.45% Total : 6.55% | Other @ 2.67% Total : 2.67% |
How you voted: Porto vs Montalegre
Porto
87.5%Draw
0.0%Montalegre
12.5%16
