Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Luton Town |
52.91% ( -1.08) | 22.87% ( 0.44) | 24.21% ( 0.64) |
Both teams to score 57.93% ( -0.75) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.75% ( -1.35) | 42.25% ( 1.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.35% ( -1.37) | 64.65% ( 1.37) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.02% ( -0.84) | 15.98% ( 0.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.71% ( -1.58) | 45.29% ( 1.58) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.94% ( -0.2) | 31.05% ( 0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.63% ( -0.23) | 67.37% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Luton Town |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 8.34% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.2) 3-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.17) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.49% Total : 52.92% | 1-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.29) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.31) 0-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.82% Total : 24.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 36 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 88 | 28 | 60 | 83 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 82 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 69 | 58 | 11 | 60 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 56 | 22 | 56 |
7 | Chelsea | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 70 | 59 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 70 | -14 | 49 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 52 | 63 | -11 | 48 |
11 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 57 | -4 | 47 |
12 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Fulham | 36 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 44 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 43 |
15 | Everton | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 37 |
16 | Brentford | 36 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 52 | 60 | -8 | 36 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 36 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 49 | 78 | -29 | 26 |
19 | Burnley | 36 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 36 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 35 | 100 | -65 | 16 |
> Premier League Full Table |