Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
Result | ||
Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
39.49% ( -0) | 28.42% ( 0) | 32.09% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 46.07% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.64% ( -0) | 80.36% ( 0.01) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.31% ( -0.01) | 29.69% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.25% ( -0.01) | 65.75% ( 0.01) |
Santa Clara Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.52% ( 0) | 34.48% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.81% ( -0) | 71.19% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
1-0 @ 12.43% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.25% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.73% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.99% 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.52% Total : 39.49% | 1-1 @ 13.23% 0-0 @ 10.23% 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0) Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.41% | 0-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.05% 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.5% 0-3 @ 2.06% 2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.25% Total : 32.09% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 33 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 30 |
3 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 7 | 23 | 28 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 24 |
5 | Braga | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 21 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 15 |
10 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 13 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 13 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 10 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 10 |
14 | AVS | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 10 |
15 | Nacional | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 9 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 9 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 8 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 8 |
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