Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AVS had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest AVS win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
Result | ||
Gil Vicente | Draw | AVS |
46.69% ( -0.02) | 24.75% ( 0.01) | 28.56% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 55.6% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.85% ( -0.01) | 47.15% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.61% ( -0.01) | 69.39% ( 0.02) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.74% ( -0.01) | 20.26% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.4% ( -0.02) | 52.61% ( 0.03) |
AVS Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.72% ( 0.01) | 30.28% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.55% ( 0) | 66.45% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Gil Vicente | Draw | AVS |
1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.82% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 2.81% Total : 46.69% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.58% 3-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.75% | 0-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.22% 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 28.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 5 | 34 | 33 |
2 | Porto | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 27 |
3 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 21 |
5 | Braga | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 20 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Casa Pia | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 13 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 10 |
13 | AVS | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 10 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
16 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 8 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 5 |
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