We said: Gil Vicente 2-1 AVS
Off the back of a humbling loss against Porto, Gil Vicente will head into Friday's clash looking to find their feet and get their season up and running. While we expect AVS to put up a fight, the Gilistas boast the firepower needed to get the job done and we are backing them to come away with a narrow victory in front of their home super.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AVS had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest AVS win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.