Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 46.69%. A win for AVS had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest AVS win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
Result | ||
Gil Vicente | Draw | AVS |
46.69% ( -0.02) | 24.75% ( 0.01) | 28.56% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 55.6% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.85% ( -0.01) | 47.15% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.61% ( -0.01) | 69.39% ( 0.02) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.74% ( -0.01) | 20.26% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.4% ( -0.02) | 52.61% ( 0.03) |
AVS Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.72% ( 0.01) | 30.28% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.55% ( 0) | 66.45% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Gil Vicente | Draw | AVS |
1-0 @ 9.79% ( 0) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.82% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.97% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.97% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 2.81% Total : 46.69% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.58% 3-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.75% | 0-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.22% 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 28.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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