Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.98%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 8.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.53%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
75.98% ( 0.37) | 15.41% ( -0.22) | 8.6% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 45.9% ( 0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.97% ( 0.57) | 39.03% ( -0.57) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.64% ( 0.59) | 61.35% ( -0.59) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.39% ( 0.22) | 8.6% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.29% ( 0.54) | 29.71% ( -0.54) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.22% ( 0.06) | 49.77% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.5% ( 0.04) | 84.5% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
2-0 @ 12.88% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.03) 6-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.05) 6-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.04% Total : 75.97% | 1-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.66% Total : 15.41% | 0-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.01% Total : 8.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 14 | 34 | 41 |
2 | Porto | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 40 |
3 | Benfica | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 11 | 27 | 38 |
4 | Braga | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 31 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 31 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 25 |
7 | Casa Pia | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 24 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 22 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 20 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 19 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 18 |
13 | Nacional | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 16 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 16 |
15 | AVS | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
16 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 28 | -15 | 15 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 14 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 12 |
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