Due to the severity of the visitors' COVID-19 outbreak, we are predicting a home win for Cagliari on Sunday, which would provide a huge boost to their survival hopes.
With their opponents' squad facing a lack of fitness and preparation, they will not be given many better opportunities, although with some first-teamers still remaining available, a strong performance will still be required if they are to earn a crucial three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Bologna win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Cagliari in this match.
