Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mantova win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Cittadella had a probability of 28.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mantova win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.57%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest Cittadella win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mantova in this match.