A place in the opening phase of the MLS Cup playoffs is at stake Wednesday when Cascadia Cup rivals the Portland Timbers and the Vancouver Whitecaps square off in a one-game, winner-take-all Wild card fixture at Providence Park.
The Caps lost their final regular-season fixture 2-1 at Real Salt Lake, while the Timbers played to a 1-1 draw with the Seattle Sounders, setting up this match, which takes place in Portland because of a conflicting event at BC Place on that day.
Match preview
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Playoff time is a clean slate for all teams still alive in MLS, and that may be exactly what Vancouver need, having stumbled their way over the post-season line this time around.
A four-match losing run heading into this one-game showdown is not the ideal form for the Whitecaps, who have lost their last four playoff fixtures.
Playing this encounter away from BC Place may not be such a bad thing, seeing as Vanni Sartini's men have lost their last three MLS home games, while they won seven regular season matches as the visitors this year, the most for them in a single season since joining this league.
While they were disappointing down the stretch of the domestic campaign, over half of their defeats in the regular season (8/13) were by only a single goal.
Vancouver failed to win four MLS encounters this year when leading in the second half and dropped 11 points as a result.
After winning their first two league fixtures this season versus Cascadia opposition, the Whitecaps collected just two points from their final four games against either the Timbers or Seattle Sounders.
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The Timbers did just enough to get above the playoff line down the home stretch of the regular season, claiming at least a point in five of their final six league fixtures.
Only one of those matches, though, ended with them claiming maximum points (4-2 over the Los Angeles Galaxy), yet they still ended the campaign five points above the Western Conference playoff line.
All season long, Phil Neville had a side that made every effort to play flamboyant, attacking football, scoring the joint second-most goals in the Western Conference (65).
However, they failed to find the back of the net in their final two domestic home encounters, just one fewer than they had done in the first 32 MLS games this year.
Providence Park was once again a fortress for them in 2024, with Portland winning nine home matches in the regular season.
Portland have won two of their previous three MLS encounters against the Caps at Providence Park, while they have not lost a playoff match there in normal time since the Houston Dynamo beat them 2-1 in November 2017.
Team News
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In their final encounter of the regular season, the Caps were without Levonte Johnson due to a minor knock, Max Anchor sat out with an injured finger and Fafa Picault will be suspended for this match after being cautioned in their final encounter.
Their only goal versus RSL came courtesy of captain Ryan Gauld, while their leading goalscorer domestically this year, Brian White, has five goals in his career against the Timbers, including the only strike in their last meeting against them at BC Place, which ended in a 1-1 draw.
For the Timbers, Santiago Moreno missed their match with Seattle due to a knock, Mason Toye is unlikely to feature because of a back injury, while Kamal Miller is eligible to return from his yellow card suspension.
Antony had the equalising goal against the Sounders, while Felipe Mora has five career goals versus the Caps, as he and Jonathan Rodriguez netted in a 2-0 triumph the last time they hosted them at Providence Park.
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Takaoka; Utvik, Veselinovic, Blackmon; Schopf, Cubas, Berhalter, Ahmed; Kreilach, White, Gauld
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Mosquera, K. Miller, Zuparic, Bravo; Chara, Paredes; Antony, Evander, Rodriguez; Mora
We say: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-3 Portland Timbers
The Timbers are by no means a stable defensive unit, but with so much firepower and creativity in the attacking third, we believe they will overwhelm a helpless Caps team that have failed to have any answers to their poor form for weeks.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 47.88%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vancouver Whitecaps would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
