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World Cup
Bolivia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
Ecuador national football team

Bolivia
1 - 2
Ecuador

Ramallo (83')
Cuellar (90')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Paez (45'), Rodriguez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Bolivia and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bolivia 0-3 Argentina
Tuesday, September 12 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 2-1 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 12 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Bolivia 1-2 Ecuador

 While we expect Bolivia to be competitive, with their opening two defeats coming against unenviable opposition, Ecuador boast the stronger squad and have a degree of momentum on their side, and we fancy them to get over the line in La Paz and make it back-to-back qualifying wins to get their points tally into the positive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 22.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.8%) and 1-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Bolivia win it was 1-0 (6.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
BoliviaDrawEcuador
22.28% (-1.379 -1.38) 24.35% (-0.554 -0.55) 53.36% (1.931 1.93)
Both teams to score 50.79% (0.056999999999995 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.42% (0.883 0.88)50.58% (-0.885 -0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.5% (0.773 0.77)72.5% (-0.77499999999999 -0.77)
Bolivia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.63% (-0.801 -0.8)37.37% (0.798 0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.84% (-0.798 -0.8)74.15% (0.79600000000001 0.8)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.1% (1.111 1.11)18.89% (-1.113 -1.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.62% (1.815 1.82)50.38% (-1.819 -1.82)
Score Analysis
    Bolivia 22.28%
    Ecuador 53.36%
    Draw 24.35%
BoliviaDrawEcuador
1-0 @ 6.95% (-0.409 -0.41)
2-1 @ 5.7% (-0.256 -0.26)
2-0 @ 3.42% (-0.281 -0.28)
3-1 @ 1.87% (-0.127 -0.13)
3-2 @ 1.56% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.12% (-0.119 -0.12)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 22.28%
1-1 @ 11.58% (-0.26 -0.26)
0-0 @ 7.06% (-0.255 -0.26)
2-2 @ 4.75% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 24.35%
0-1 @ 11.76% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.8% (0.329 0.33)
1-2 @ 9.65% (0.121 0.12)
0-3 @ 5.45% (0.364 0.36)
1-3 @ 5.36% (0.248 0.25)
2-3 @ 2.64% (0.067 0.07)
0-4 @ 2.27% (0.224 0.22)
1-4 @ 2.23% (0.176 0.18)
2-4 @ 1.1% (0.065 0.07)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 53.36%

How you voted: Bolivia vs Ecuador

Bolivia
25.0%
Draw
11.4%
Ecuador
63.6%
44
Head to Head
Jun 18, 2023 12.30am
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
1-0
Bolivia
Valencia (69')
Estupinan (13'), Pacho (36')

Roca (41'), Terceros (53'), Arrascaita (73'), Ursino (85')
> Preview
Oct 8, 2021 1.30am
Group Stage
Ecuador
3-0
Bolivia
> Preview
Mar 29, 2021 9.30pm
Friendlies 1
Ecuador
2-1
Bolivia
Martinez (37'), Estrada (59')
Arroyo (55')
Ramallo (90+4')
Montero (12')
Nov 12, 2020 8pm
Group Stage
Bolivia
2-3
Ecuador
Carlos Arce (37'), Moreno (60')
Jusino (18'), Montero (78')
Caicedo (46'), Mena (55'), Gruezo (88' pen.)
Caicedo (45'), Gruezo (45+2')
> Preview
Sep 11, 2019 1am
International Friendlies
Ecuador
3-0
Bolivia
Estrada (49'), Sornoza (72' pen.), Plata (86')
Torres (40'), Mendez (62')

Chumacero (18'), Campos (53')
rhs 2.0
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