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World Cup
Colombia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 17, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez
Brazil national football team

Colombia
2 - 1
Brazil

Diaz (75', 79')
Sanchez (20')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Martinelli (4')
Diniz (21'), Lodi (78'), Pepe (90'), (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Colombia and Brazil, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Brazil could line up for Thursday's CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Colombia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Colombia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Ecuador 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, October 18 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Brazil

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Uruguay 2-0 Brazil
Wednesday, October 18 at 1am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Colombia 0-1 Brazil

 Colombia have frustrated Brazil on numerous occasions and there has been little to separate these two nations in recent years, so another closely-fought contest could be on the cards. Although Brazil are missing a few key players and may rely on a couple of debutants on Friday, Diniz should have enough quality at his disposal to steer the Selecao to victory in Barranquilla. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Brazil had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.69%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Brazil win was 0-1 (11.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.

Result
ColombiaDrawBrazil
38.48% (-2.506 -2.51) 29.26% (-0.49 -0.49) 32.26% (2.998 3)
Both teams to score 43.81% (2.182 2.18)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
37.04% (2.209 2.21)62.96% (-2.206 -2.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.56% (1.572 1.57)82.44% (-1.567 -1.57)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.3% (-0.372 -0.37)31.7% (0.374 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.88% (-0.431 -0.43)68.12% (0.43300000000001 0.43)
Brazil Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.15% (3.527 3.53)35.85% (-3.523 -3.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.37% (3.449 3.45)72.63% (-3.446 -3.45)
Score Analysis
    Colombia 38.47%
    Brazil 32.25%
    Draw 29.25%
ColombiaDrawBrazil
1-0 @ 13.05% (-1.26 -1.26)
2-1 @ 7.69% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-0 @ 7.5% (-0.809 -0.81)
3-1 @ 2.95% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.87% (-0.342 -0.34)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.115 0.12)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 38.47%
1-1 @ 13.39% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 11.36% (-0.97 -0.97)
2-2 @ 3.95% (0.337 0.34)
Other @ 0.56%
Total : 29.25%
0-1 @ 11.65% (0.16 0.16)
1-2 @ 6.87% (0.651 0.65)
0-2 @ 5.98% (0.622 0.62)
1-3 @ 2.35% (0.417 0.42)
0-3 @ 2.04% (0.38 0.38)
2-3 @ 1.35% (0.228 0.23)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 32.25%

How you voted: Colombia vs Brazil

Colombia
24.2%
Draw
19.7%
Brazil
56.1%
66
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Oct 10, 2021 10pm
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