World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | First Qualifying Round
Sep 5, 2024 at 11pm UK
J.S. Blatter Football Complex Tuanaimato Field 1
Cook Islands1 - 3Tonga
Kumsuz (63')
Maro (38'), Kumsuz (81')
Maro (38'), Kumsuz (81')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Tikoipau (27'), Polovili (39' pen.), Kefu (79')
Polovili (45+2')
Polovili (45+2')
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania First Qualifying Round clash between Cook Islands and Tonga.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Tahiti 3-0 Cook Islands
Friday, September 1 at 7am in International Friendlies
Friday, September 1 at 7am in International Friendlies
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tonga win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Cook Islands had a probability of 32.51% and a draw had a probability of 18.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tonga win was 1-2 with a probability of 6.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-3 (5.78%) and 1-3 (5.63%). The likeliest Cook Islands win was 2-1 (5.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tonga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cook Islands | Draw | Tonga |
32.51% ( -1.71) | 18.93% ( -0.56) | 48.55% ( 2.26) |
| Both teams to score 80% ( 1.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
