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Preview: Australian Open: Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Australian Open second-round match between Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Expect entertainment Down Under in round two when Matteo Berrettini and Holger Rune clash at the Australian Open on Thursday for a place in the third round.

In his first victory at the opening Grand Slam of the year since 2022, the Italian defeated Brit Cameron Norrie in four sets, while the effervescent Rune overcame Zhang Zhizhen in a topsy-turvy five-setter.


Match preview

Matteo Berrettini reacts at the Japan Open on September 25, 2024© Imago

Despite reaching the semi-final in Australia in 2022, Berrettini came unstuck at the first hurdle two years ago in a thrilling five-set loss at the hands of Andy Murray and missed last year's event due to injury.

Back in Australia for the first time since losing to one Brit, the former world No. 6 might have feared a repeat after losing a first-set tie-break against Norrie.

However, the former Italian No. 1 roared back in sets two, three and four to clinch a 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-1, 6-3 triumph to set up another meeting with Rune.

Despite double-faulting seven times, the 28-year-old still reeled off 32 aces, won an impressive 85% of points on his first deliveries and saved all five break points Norrie created.

Able to take advantage of five break chances on the Briton's serve, the world No. 34, making up for lost time Down Under, took the match in four sets to avoid another tournament-opening elimination in Australia after two years away.

Although he could set up a meeting with 18th seed Hubert Hurkacz or Miomir Kecmanovic, the 2021 Wimbledon finalist has often found Rune a tough opponent in their previous meetings, as underscored by tight losses to the Dane.

Holger Rune in action at the Australian Open on January 14, 2025© Imago

Rune's battling qualities were evident in his first-round encounter with Zhang, which ebbed and flowed before the 13th seed edged proceedings after three hours and 10 minutes on Tuesday.

The 21-year-old at times struggled to get a measure of his Chinese opponent's serve in the pair's first meeting on the ATP Tour, as the 28-year-old cracked 21 aces to his 10.

Having recovered from losing the opening set and being pegged back in the fourth, the three-time Grand Slam quarter-finalist secured a place in Thursday's second round to avoid back-to-back early eliminations at the Majors.

Defeat would have meant losing consecutive first-round matches at the Slams since his first two appearances, at the 2021 US Open and the 2022 tournament in Australia — the latter being his only first-round exit Down Under.

After losing at this stage last year, beaten in four sets by French wild card Arthur Cazaux, the young Dane hopes for a different outcome at the expense of his Italian opponent in what should be an exciting encounter.


Tournament so far

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: vs. Cameron Norrie 6-7(4) 6-4 6-1 6-3

Holger Rune:

First round: vs. Zhang Zhizhen 4-6 6-3 6-4 3-6 6-4


Head To Head

Shanghai Masters (2024) - Second round: Rune 4-6 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati Masters (2024) - Round of 64: Rune 2-6 6-1 6-4

Acapulco (2023) - Quarter-final: Rune 6-0 1-0 ret

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Berrettini 6-3 4-6 6-4

Apart from their second meeting on the ATP Tour, in which Berrettini retired in Acapulco, every other match-up with Rune has gone the distance.

The Danish player leads their head-to-head 3-1, despite losing to the former world No. 6 when they met for the first time at Indian Wells in 2022.

Although Thursday's encounter will be their first at a Grand Slam, previous matches have been on hard courts, possibly giving each player an idea of what to expect in Australia.


SM words green background

We say: Berrettini to win in five sets

Both men have shown a pattern of playing tightly contested matches in previous meetings, and their second-round encounter Down Under should be no different.

Despite losing consecutive Masters 1000 meetings with Rune last year, the outcome could have gone Berrettini's way; we back the Italian to get the better of an opponent seven years his junior this time, snapping a three-match losing run in this rivalry.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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