Bayern Munich will be bidding to book their spot in the quarter-finals of the Champions League when they welcome Red Bull Salzburg for the second leg of their last-16 affair on Tuesday.
The tie is delicately poised following a 1-1 draw in the first leg last month, with Kingsley Coman coming up with a late leveller for Bayern after Chukwubuike Adamu had sent the home side ahead in the 21st minute.
Match preview
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Bayern were far from their best in the first leg last month but managed to level late on through Coman, with the result making it 22 away games in the competition without a defeat, and they will fancy their chances of finishing the job in front of their own supporters on Wednesday night.
The Bundesliga champions won all six of their Group E matches to finish top of the section, beating Barcelona twice in the process, and the club are playing in the knockout round of this competition for the 18th time.
Last season, Bayern were knocked out by Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals of the competition, and they have actually reached the quarter-finals or better in nine of their last 10 seasons, so it would be a huge surprise if the German outfit were not present in the final eight, with Salzburg the underdogs in the tie.
Bayern have won all five of their home games in the competition against Austrian visitors, scoring 15 times in the process, including a 3-1 victory over Salzburg when the two sides locked horns in the group stage of the 2020-21 competition, while they put six past the Austrian outfit in the away fixture.
Julian Nagelsmann's side will enter this contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on Saturday, which has left them nine points clear of second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the top of the table.
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Salzburg booked their spot in the knockout round of this season's Champions League by finishing second in Group G, picking up 10 points from their six matches against Lille, Sevilla and Wolfsburg.
The Red Bulls, who are making their debut in the round of 16, have been in strong form since the first leg last month, winning two of their three league matches, including a 4-0 success over Rheindorf Altach on Saturday.
Salzburg have already faced German opposition twice in this season's competition, beating Wolfsburg 3-1 in the group stage at home before suffering a 2-1 defeat in the reverse fixture in Germany, and they will need to pull off a famous result on Tuesday to advance to the quarter-finals.
Matthias Jaissle's side, who won an eighth successive Bundesliga title last term, were excellent at home in the group stage of this season's Champions League, but they only picked up one point on their travels, which is a concerning record ahead of a trip to Allianz Arena.
Salzburg have also lost nine of their last 15 European matches on their travels, while they have been beaten in six of their last nine games in Germany, recording just two wins in the process.
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Team News
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Bayern will again be missing Corentin Tolisso, Manuel Neuer, Alphonso Davies and Leon Goretzka on Tuesday evening through injury.
The Bundesliga champions are otherwise in good shape, with Thomas Muller returning from illness on Saturday, and the German is expected to feature in an attacking spot for the home team.
Serge Gnabry and Coman played as advanced wing-backs in the first leg with Salzburg and that is again expected to be the case in this match, with Leroy Sane and Muller operating behind Robert Lewandowski.
Meanwhile, Tolisso's absence will open the door for Jamal Musiala to feature in central midfield alongside Joshua Kimmich.
As for Salzburg, a lengthy injury list includes Albert Vallci, Sekou Koita, Ousmane Diakite, Bryan Okoh, Benjamin Sesko, Jerome Onguene, Noah Okafor and Oumar Solet.
Okafor and Solet both started the first leg in Austria, but the former has recently been absent due to a hamstring problem, while the latter is unlikely to be available due to a muscular problem.
Adamu could feature alongside Karim Adeyemi in the final third of the field, while Solet's expected absence at the back should open the door for Kamil Piatkowski to start.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Ulreich; Pavard, Sule, Hernandez; Gnabry, Kimmich, Musiala, Coman; Muller, Sane; Lewandowski
Red Bull Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Kohn; Kristensen, Piatkowski, Wober, Ulmer; Camara; Capaldo, Aaronson, Seiwald; Adamu, Adeyemi
We say: Bayern Munich 3-1 Red Bull Salzburg
Salzburg were excellent in the first leg last month, but we are finding it difficult to back the Austrian side to advance on Tuesday evening. Bayern have so much attacking quality, and we fancy them to score three times to comfortably book their spot in the quarter-finals of the competition.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
