Brentford play host to Bournemouth in the second leg of their Championship playoff semi-final needing to overturn a 1-0 deficit.
A second-half goal from Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld proved to be the difference at the Vitality Stadium on Monday night, giving the Cherries a slender advantage ahead of Saturday's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Ahead of the first leg on the South Coast, Brentford had put together a 12-match unbeaten streak in the second tier and Bournemouth were on a run of three successive defeats.
As is often the way with the EFL playoffs, the form book went out of the window as Jonathan Woodgate's side returned to form with a narrow victory.
Both teams will feel that they should have gotten more from the game, but the lack of ruthlessness in the final third has left this tie finely balanced ahead of the game in the capital.
Having gone two matches without finding the back of the net, Groeneveld took his tally to 16 goals for the season with the decisive strike after the break.
Nevertheless, the Dutchman will be aware that he may need to replicate his contribution to help fend off opponents who will not be discouraged by the narrowest of defeats.
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You have to go all the way back to February 24 for the last time that Brentford scored more than two goals at their home ground, a 3-0 triumph being recorded against relegated Sheffield Wednesday.
With just seven goals coming in as many games since that result, Thomas Frank knows that his side must improve if they are to reach the final for the second year in a row.
Much has been made of Ivan Toney contributing 31 goals and 10 assists during a record-breaking season for the 25-year-old, who is naturally being linked with a move to a bigger club.
However, another 90 minutes have passed by without the forward scoring from open play, leaving him on two goals since March with penalties not included.
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Team News
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Having sustained a knee injury during the first leg, Steve Cook is expected to miss out for Bournemouth.
Chris Mepham is on standby to be introduced into the defence in what may be the only alternation made by Woodgate.
While Brentford counterpart Frank will likely stick with three at the back, changes are expected further forward.
Bryan Mbeumo may get the nod over Sergi Canos at left wing-back, being preferred to Rico Henry who has only just returned from a hamstring injury.
Canos or Saman Ghoddos could be used in a creative role behind Toney, a move which would result in Marcus Forss dropping down to the substitutes' bench.
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Raya; Jansson, Norgaard, Pinnock; Rasmussen, Jensen, Janelt, Mbeumo; Fosu-Henry, Canos; Toney
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Begovic; Smith, Carter-Vickers, Mepham, Kelly; Lerma, Pearson; Brooks, Billing, Groeneveld; Solanke
We say: Brentford 2-1 Bournemouth
With the tie in the balance, neither team will be able to excessively commit during the first half of this contest. Nevertheless, we expect a stronger performance from Brentford in the final third, one which could take this tie to extra time and potentially penalties.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brentford win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 30.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brentford win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brentford would win this match.
