Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 49.03%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 26.95% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.47%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.