MX23RW : Thursday, January 30 16:08:07| >> :120:16563:16563:
Milan logo
Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 28, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Dortmund logo

AC Milan
1 - 3
Dortmund

Chukwueze (37')
Tomori (67')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Reus (10' pen.), Bynoe-Gittens (59'), Adeyemi (69')
Can (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: AC Milan 1-1 Borussia Dortmund

Another close-fought contest is set to unfold between two well-matched sides, following their tense goalless stalemate in October. Both clubs' Group F fate may be decided on the final matchday following a low-scoring draw at San Siro. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.

Result
AC MilanDrawBorussia Dortmund
44.84% (0.024999999999999 0.02) 23.43% (-0.128 -0.13) 31.72% (0.104 0.1)
Both teams to score 62.06% (0.503 0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.52% (0.642 0.64)39.48% (-0.64 -0.64)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.17% (0.667 0.67)61.82% (-0.666 -0.67)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.04% (0.265 0.27)17.96% (-0.265 -0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.21% (0.453 0.45)48.79% (-0.452 -0.45)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.64% (0.37100000000001 0.37)24.36% (-0.371 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.24% (0.522 0.52)58.76% (-0.521 -0.52)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 44.84%
    Borussia Dortmund 31.72%
    Draw 23.43%
AC MilanDrawBorussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 9.11% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.51% (-0.161 -0.16)
2-0 @ 6.45% (-0.082 -0.08)
3-1 @ 5.21% (0.035 0.04)
3-0 @ 3.69% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.68% (0.064 0.06)
4-1 @ 2.24% (0.033 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.59% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.58% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 3.78%
Total : 44.84%
1-1 @ 10.6% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-2 @ 6.43% (0.056 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.37% (-0.132 -0.13)
3-3 @ 1.73% (0.048 0.05)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.43%
1-2 @ 7.49% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 6.18% (-0.118 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.36% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.53% (0.039 0.04)
2-3 @ 3.03% (0.059 0.06)
0-3 @ 2.05% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-4 @ 1.25% (0.027 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.07% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 31.72%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Dortmund

AC Milan
53.4%
Draw
24.2%
Borussia Dortmund
22.5%
178
Head to Head
Oct 4, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Dortmund
0-0
AC Milan
Schlotterbeck (19'), Can (25'), Hummels (81')
Reijnders (23'), Musah (88')
Jul 18, 2017 12.20pm
Pre-season Friendlies
AC Milan
1-3
Dortmund
Bacca (24')
Bacca (26')
Sahin (16'), Aubameyang (20' pen., 62')
Papastathopoulos (60')
rhs 2.0
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