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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.29%) and 0-2 (5.47%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayern Munich |
35.2% ( 1.03) | 22.87% ( 0.48) | 41.93% ( -1.51) |
Both teams to score 65.46% ( -1.58) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.46% ( -2.17) | 35.54% ( 2.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.41% ( -2.45) | 57.59% ( 2.44) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.4% ( -0.48) | 20.6% ( 0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.85% ( -0.77) | 53.14% ( 0.77) |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.45% ( -1.48) | 17.55% ( 1.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.91% ( -2.63) | 48.08% ( 2.63) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayern Munich |
2-1 @ 7.85% ( 0.25) 1-0 @ 5.71% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.35) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.15) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.02% Total : 35.2% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.46) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.38) 3-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.38) 0-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 5.02% ( -0.26) 2-3 @ 3.96% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.23) 2-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.21) 0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.12) 3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.17% Total : 41.93% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 31 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 77 | 22 | 55 | 81 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 31 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 89 | 38 | 51 | 69 |
3 | Stuttgart | 31 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 70 | 38 | 32 | 64 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 62 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 57 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 45 |
7 | Freiburg | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 40 |
8 | Augsburg | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 39 |
9 | Hoffenheim | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 55 | 63 | -8 | 39 |
10 | Heidenheim | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 37 |
11 | Werder Bremen | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 37 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 34 |
13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 53 | 60 | -7 | 32 |
14 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 30 |
15 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 31 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 37 | 62 | -25 | 30 |
16 | Mainz 05Mainz | 31 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 28 |
17 | FC Koln | 31 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 31 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 30 | 73 | -43 | 17 |
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