We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Bristol City
Given Bristol City's long-standing inconsistency, they may very well travel to the North East and pull off a shock win. However, we feel that Boro could improve quickly under Carrick, leading us to predict a home win, albeit in nervy circumstances.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 64.22%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Bristol City had a probability of 14.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for a Bristol City win it was 0-1 (5.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.