MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 11:05:37| >> :600:170926:170926:
Copa del Rey | Round of 32
Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK
Estadio Mpal De Oira
Atletico Madrid logo

Lugo
1 - 3
Atletico

Antonetti (39')
Quintana (35')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Correa (2'), Depay (66', 74')
Azpilicueta (32')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Copa del Rey clash between Lugo and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugo

All competitions
Copa del Rey
Last Game: Lugo 2-0 Mirandes
Wednesday, December 6 at 6pm in Copa del Rey

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Last Game: Girona 4-3 Atletico
Wednesday, January 3 at 8.30pm in La Liga

We said: Lugo 0-3 Atletico Madrid

 Lugo have showcased great defensive performances so far in the Copa del Rey, but that is going to be tested to the maximum on Saturday. Ultimately, the attacking quality of Atletico Madrid should be too much for their opponents, with the La Liga side expected to go through comfortably. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 25.24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
LugoDrawAtletico Madrid
25.24% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01) 25.5% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 49.25% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 50.56% (0.091999999999999 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.5% (0.125 0.13)52.49% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.83% (0.106 0.11)74.16% (-0.107 -0.11)
Lugo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.26% (0.058999999999997 0.06)35.73% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.49% (0.059000000000001 0.06)72.5% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.67% (0.072000000000003 0.07)21.33% (-0.074000000000002 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.71% (0.11 0.11)54.28% (-0.11 -0.11)
Score Analysis
    Lugo 25.25%
    Atletico Madrid 49.25%
    Draw 25.49%
LugoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7.84% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-1 @ 6.24% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 4.04% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.14% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.65% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.39%
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 25.25%
1-1 @ 12.11% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
0-0 @ 7.62% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.82% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 25.49%
0-1 @ 11.77% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 9.36% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
0-2 @ 9.1% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.82% (0.015 0.01)
0-3 @ 4.69% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.48% (0.012 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.86% (0.01 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.81% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.96% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 49.25%

How you voted: Lugo vs Atletico

Lugo
8.7%
Draw
8.7%
Atletico Madrid
82.6%
23
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