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La Liga | Gameweek 17
Dec 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
San Mames Barria
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Athletic Bilbao
2 - 0
Atletico

Guruzeta (51'), Williams (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)

De Paul (49')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Granada 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Monday, December 11 at 8pm in La Liga

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 2-0 Lazio
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Atletico Madrid

 Only one of the last six La Liga meetings between these two sides have finished level, but we are predicting a stalemate on Saturday. Athletic are strong at home, while Atletico's away form has been patchy, so we are finding it difficult to predict another victory for Simeone's side here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
48.36% (0.045999999999999 0.05) 24.45% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 27.19% (-0.044 -0.04)
Both teams to score 55.54% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.25% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)46.75% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.99% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)69.01% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.6% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)19.4% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.79% (0.012 0.01)51.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.91% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)31.09% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.59% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)67.41% (0.058000000000007 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 48.36%
    Atletico Madrid 27.19%
    Draw 24.45%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.89% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 8.11% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 4.43% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.03% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.12% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-0 @ 1.82% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 48.36%
1-1 @ 11.55%
0-0 @ 6.03% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.54% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.45%
0-1 @ 7.05% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.12% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.6% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 27.19%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico

Athletic Bilbao
40.3%
Draw
17.9%
Atletico Madrid
41.8%
67
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Athletic Bilbao
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> Preview
Oct 15, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 9
Athletic Bilbao
0-1
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Griezmann (47')
> Preview
Apr 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 34
Athletic Bilbao
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Hermoso (8' og.), Williams (56' pen.)
Garcia (25'), Williams (68'), Berenguer (90+1')

Hermoso (1'), Mandava (18'), Lodi (71')
> Preview
Jan 13, 2022 7pm
Semi-Finals
Atletico
1-2
Athletic Bilbao
Simeone (62' og.)
Vrsaljko (90+1')
Gimenez (90+3')
Alvarez (77'), Williams (81')
Martinez (83'), Vesga (90'), Williams (90+1')
> Preview
Sep 18, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 5
Atletico
0-0
Athletic Bilbao
Kondogbia (36'), Felix (78'), Savic (79'), Cunha (90'), Gimenez (90+7')
Felix (78')
Garcia (30'), Williams Arthuer (82')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona13110240122833
2Real Madrid1283125111427
3Atletico MadridAtletico137511971226
4Villarreal127322319424
5Osasuna136341720-321
6Athletic Bilbao135531913620
7Real BetisBetis135531412220
8Real Sociedad135351110118
9Mallorca135351010018
10GironaGirona135351617-118
11Celta Vigo135262022-217
12Rayo Vallecano124441313016
13Sevilla134361218-615
14Leganes133551316-314
15AlavesAlaves134181422-813
16Las PalmasLas Palmas133371622-612
17Getafe13175811-310
18Espanyol123181122-1110
19Real ValladolidValladolid132381025-159
20Valencia11146817-97
> La Liga Full Table


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