MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 05:31:28| >> :120:9633:9633:
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Jun 28, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
1 - 0
Metropolitanos

Polenta (40')
Ramirez (56')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Vargas (25'), Annese (79'), Mancin (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Nacional and Metropolitanos, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Liverpool 3-0 Nacional
Friday, June 23 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Metropolitanos

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Metropolitanos 0-1 Medellin
Thursday, June 8 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Nacional 2-1 Metropolitanos

 On paper, this should be a win for Nacional, particularly with home advantage in their favour. However, the pressure on their shoulders combined by the extra freedom for the visitors may lead to no more than a narrow victory for the hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 19.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Nacional.

Result
NacionalDrawMetropolitanos
54.28% (0.0030000000000001 0) 25.93% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 19.78% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 43.11% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41% (0.0010000000000048 0)58.99% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.53% (0.0010000000000012 0)79.46% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.13%21.86% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.9% (0.0040000000000049 0)55.1% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Metropolitanos Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.18% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)44.82% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.21% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)80.79%
Score Analysis
    Nacional 54.27%
    Metropolitanos 19.78%
    Draw 25.93%
NacionalDrawMetropolitanos
1-0 @ 14.89%
2-0 @ 11.32%
2-1 @ 9.09%
3-0 @ 5.74% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 4.61%
4-0 @ 2.18% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 1.85%
4-1 @ 1.75%
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 54.27%
1-1 @ 11.95%
0-0 @ 9.8% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 3.65%
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 25.93%
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 4.8% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 3.16% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 1.28% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 0.98%
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 19.78%

How you voted: Nacional vs Metropolitanos

Nacional
100%
Draw
0.0%
Metropolitanos
0.0%
12
Head to Head
Apr 5, 2023 3am
Group Stage
Metropolitanos
1-2
Nacional
Ortiz (52')
Gigliotti (23'), Ginella (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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