Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
We said: Sao Paulo 1-0 Nacional
For as sharp as Nacional were defensively in the opening leg, we have difficulty believing they can replicate that against a side in Sao Paulo who are equally strong on the back end at home and have plenty of experience to draw upon in these must-win games.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 62.56% . A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.9% .
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.8%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%) , while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.35%) . The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
Result Sao Paulo Draw Nacional 62.56% ( -0.5) 21.54% ( 0.29) 15.9% ( 0.22)
Both teams to score 48.56% ( -0.41)
52.03% ( -0.8) 47.97% ( 0.81)
29.86% ( -0.74) 70.15% ( 0.75)
85.25% ( -0.42) 14.75% ( 0.42)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 57.02% ( -0.81) 42.98% ( 0.82)
56.97% ( -0.19) 43.04% ( 0.2)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 20.68% ( -0.16) 79.32% ( 0.17)
Sao Paulo 62.55%
Nacional 15.9%
Draw 21.54%
Sao Paulo Draw Nacional 1-0 @ 12.14% ( 0.22) 2-0 @ 11.62% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.42% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.37% Total : 62.55% 1-1 @ 10.24% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.13% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.54% 0-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 1.21% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 15.9%
How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Nacional
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rhs 2.0
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